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End - Session Commentary
Detailed review of the post market session of the day for last one week.
Market tumbles as RBI slashes GDP growth forecast
04-Oct-19   16:59 Hrs IST

Key barometers extended losses for fifth consecutive session on Friday, dragged by selling pressure in banks stocks. The Nifty ended below the 200-day simple moving average (DMA) placed at 11,262.

Market sentiment was dented after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its FY20 GDP growth rate forecast sharply to 6.1% from 6.9%. Investors were also cautious ahead of US jobs numbers later today for clues on whether the US central bank will cut rates this month.

The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell 433.56 points or 1.14% to 37,673.31. The Nifty 50 index fell 139.25 points or 1.23% to 11,174.75.

In the past five sessions, the Sensex tumbled 3.38% and the Nifty fell 3.43%.

The market breadth was weak. On the BSE, 976 shares rose and 1636 shares fell. A total of 253 shares remain unchanged.

Selling was wide spread. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.94%. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index fell 0.79%.

The Nifty 50 index opened higher, but pared gains as the session progressed. It slipped into negative terrain in early afternoon trade after the RBI policy outcome. Selling gathered pace in the afternoon trade, dragging the 50-unit index below 11,200-mark. The index ended near the day's low amid strong selling pressure.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI on Friday slashed the repo rate, the rate at which it lends to banks, by 25 basis points. The repo rate now stands at 5.15%. The MPC also decided to continue with an accommodative stance as long as it is necessary to revive growth, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target.

On the data front, the IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index contracted for the first time in three months. The headline figure fell from 52.4 in August to 48.7 in September, its lowest mark since February 2018.

In the bond market, the yield on 10-year benchmark federal paper rose to 6.683% compared with 6.606% at close in the previous trading session.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 70.885, compared with its close of 70.875 during the previous trading session.

On the equity front, bank shares tumbled after the monetary policy outcome. The Nifty Bank index erased early gains and declined 2.40%, extending its losing streak to fifth straight day. The index is down 7.57% from its recent closing high of 30,002.60 on 26 September 2019.

Among private sector banks, Federal Bank (down 3.82%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 3.46%), ICICI Bank (down 3.17%), RBL Bank (down 2.82%), HDFC Bank (down 2.79%), Axis Bank (down 1.81%) and Yes Bank (down 0.94%), tumbled.

IndusInd Bank advanced 0.59% to Rs 1264 after foreign brokerage maintaining its 'buy' rating on the stock, with a target price of Rs 1,980 per share. The firm added that asset quality was 'holding up' but NPA coverage is likely to increase.

Among PSU Banks, Bank of India (down 2.51%), Bank of Baroda (down 2.37%), State Bank of India (down 2%), Punjab National Bank (down 1.86%), Allahabad Bank (down 1.27%), IDBI Bank (down 0.97%) and Canara Bank (down 0.74%), declined.

UCO Bank jumped 8.09%. The bank said that the board of directors of the bank approved the proposal for the issue of equity shares on preferential basis to Government of India against capital infusion of Rs 2130 crore. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 3 October 2019.

Housing finance major HDFC ended almost flat at Rs 1976.90. The corporation announced that profit on sale of investments rose 83% Rs 1,632 crore in Q2 September 2019 compared with Rs 891 crore in Q2 September 2019. Profit included profit on sale of part stake of equity shares in Gruh Finance. HDFC's stake in Gruh Finance stood at 38.2%. Income from dividend stood at Rs 1,074 crore in Q2 September 2019 versus Rs 6 crore in Q2 September 2019. The dividend from HDFC Bank was Rs 865 crore while that from Gruh Finance was Rs 70 crore. HDFC said that it will announce Q2 September 2019 results on 4 November 2019.

Godrej Consumer Products rose 1.22%. The company announced during market hours today, 4 October 2019, that during the quarter it witnessed relatively mixed demand across its geographies of operations. In India, demand continued to be challenging, impacted by a general consumption slowdown. Despite sluggish demand conditions, the firm recorded higher than mid-single digit volume growth. The uplift in volume growth was led by recovery in household insecticides, new product launches, effective marketing campaigns and tactical consumer offers. The sales value growth will be very close to the last quarter's sales value growth.

FMCG major Marico fell 1.64%. The stock lost over 4% in the past three trading sessions. Marico announced on Tuesday, 1 October 2019, that demand and consumer sentiments weakened during the quarter, which manifested in slowing category growths in the firm. Further, the tobacco giant added that, 'liquidity challenges have led to some correction in trade inventories and exerted pressure on channel partners investments and returns'. In the traditional channel, both rural and urban faced distress during the quarter.

The Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) rose 0.52%. Anheuser Busch InBev (AB InBev) signed an agreement with IHCL to launch a premium chain of microbreweries within its marquee hotels across key locations in India. This collaboration is worth Rs 150 crore with plans to open 15 microbreweries over the next five years. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 3 October 2019.

National Fertilizers rose 2.29% after the company said its fertilizer sales jumped 25% to 27 lakh MT in April-September 2019 over April-September 2018.

Spandana Sphoorty Financial rose 1.78% to Rs 917.15 after a domestic brokerage firm initiated coverage on the stock with a 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 1,200 each.

In the commodities market, Brent crude for December 2019 settlement was up 33 cents at $58.04 a barrel. The contract rose 2 cents or 0.03% to settle at $57.71 a barrel in the previous trading session.

Overseas, most European stocks were trading higher while most Asian stocks declined on Friday as investors turned cautious ahead of a key US job report that could help determine whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates further.

Investors await U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for September, expected to be released later on Friday.

US stocks rose on Thursday after data showing US services-sector activity at a three-year low fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates to stem a wider economic downturn.

The Institute for Supply Management's index of the health U.S. services sector came in 52.6%, in September, down from 56.4% in August.

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