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End - Session Commentary
Detailed review of the post market session of the day for last one week.
Nifty ends below 8100; banks stocks drag
03-Apr-20   17:14 Hrs IST

Domestic shares ended with steep losses on Friday, as coronavirus cases showed no signs of abating while negative global cues further impacted sentiments. The number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus worldwide surpassed 1 million on Thursday, resulting in more than 54,000 deaths so far. Active coronavirus cases in India rose to 2,088 while 56 people have died from the infection.

The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, slipped 674.36 points or 2.39% at 27,590.95. The Nifty 50 index shed 170 points or 2.06% at 8,083.80.

Weakness in the market were led by banking stocks while pharma shares bucked weak market trend. Banks stocks slumped after Moody's Investors Service on 2 April 2020 changed the outlook for the Indian banking system to negative from stable.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap index lost 1.17% while the S&P BSE Small-Cap index fell 1.03%. The decline in both these indices was lesser than the Sensex.

The market breadth favoured the buyers. On the BSE, 1135 shares rose and 1104 shares fell. A total of 179 shares were unchanged.

Economy:

IHS Markit announced Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) numbers for India yesterday, 2 April 2020. The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell from 54.5 in February 2020 to 51.8 in March 2020. Weighing on the headline figure was slowdown in production growth during March.

Commenting on the latest survey results, Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit, said: The Indian manufacturing sector remained relatively sheltered from the negative impact of the global coronavirus outbreak in March, however, there were pockets of disruption and a clear onset of fear amongst firms. New orders and output both grew at softer rates, but those readings were relatively tame compared to those seen at goods producers in Europe and other parts of Asia. The most prominent signs of trouble came from the new export orders and future activity indices, which respectively indicated tumbling global demand and softening domestic confidence. Should the trajectory of injections continue in the same vein, the Indian manufacturing sector can expect a much sharper negative impact in the coming months, similar to the scale seen in other countries.

Numbers to Track:

In the foreign exchange market, the partially convertible rupee edged lower to 76.01 compared with its previous closing of 75.60.

The yield on 10-year benchmark federal paper rose to 6.298% as compared with 6.138% in the previous trading session.

In the commodities market, Brent crude for June 2020 settlement rose $2.41 to $32.35 a barrel. The contract rose 21% or $5.20 to settle at $29.94 a barrel in the previous trading session.

The OPEC+ alliance has reportedly planned an extraordinary meeting for Monday (6 April 2020) via webinar to try and broker a deal on production cuts following mediation by US President Donald Trump this week between Saudi Arabia and Russia on their oil price war. The Russian energy minister Alexander Novak is yet to confirm his participation.

OPEC+ consists of OPEC, Russia and nine other allies, who have been coordinating a series of production cuts aimed at propping up the market since 2017. But the alliance was nearly terminated at its last meeting on 6 March 2020, when Russia rejected a Saudi-led OPEC proposal for deeper cuts to combat the coronavirus outbreak's impact on the oil market.

MCX Gold futures for 3 April 2020 settlement rose 1.02% to Rs 43,680.

Global Markets:

European and Asian shares fell across the board on Friday. An overnight surge in oil prices, which saw US crude futures soaring more than 24% failed to cheer Asian markets.

On the economic data front, a private survey released Friday showed China's services sector shrank further in March. The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March was at 43 following a record low of 26.5 in February. PMI readings below 50 indicate contraction, while figures above that level signify an expansion.

The headline IHS Markit composite PMI for the euro zone collapsed from 51.6 in February to an all-time low of 29.7 in March.

US stocks on Thursday finished near the highs of the session, as investors appeared to focus on hope that a détente between some of the biggest oil producers on the planet might be achieved to substantially curb oil production and stabilize battered prices.

US President Donald Trump reportedly tweeted that he had been in contact with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and that he expected the Saudis and Russia to cut production of 10 million to 15 million barrels a day.

Meanwhile, the US trade deficit narrowed to $39.9 billion in February from $45.5 billion in January.

The US Labour Department said Thursday that initial jobless claims surged to more than 6 million last week, reaching a new record as Coronavirus-related shutdowns roll through the country.

Buzzing Index:

The Nifty Bank index fell 5.27% to 17,249.30, extending decline for second day. The index has fallen 9.90% in two sessions.

Banking stocks faced serious selling pressure as Moody's Investors Service changed the outlook for Indian banking system to negative from stable. “We have changed the outlook for the Indian banking system to negative from stable. Disruptions to economic activity from the coronavirus outbreak will exacerbate a slowdown in India's economic growth, Moody's said.

Among the public sector banks, Canara Bank (down 6.81%), State Bank of India (down 5.92%), Bank of Baroda (down 4.88%), Punjab National Bank (down 2.62%), Andhra Bank (down 1.42%) and Central Bank (down 1.14%) tumbled.

Among the private sector banks, Axis Bank (down 9.16%), IndusInd Bank (down 8.49%), Bandhan Bank (down 6.8%), City Union Bank (down 3.67%), Federal Bank (down 3.51%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 2.01%) and HDFC Bank (down 1.95%), declined.

ICICI Bank slumped 8.01%. The bank has announced a reduction in its savings bank account interest rate and term deposits. ICICI Bank has announced a reduction in its savings bank account interest rate with effect from 9 April 2020. For savings account balance below Rs 50 lakh, the interest rate will be reduced to 3.25% per annum (pa) from 3.5% pa and for above Rs 50 lakh it will be reduced to 3.75% pa from 4% pa. ICICI Bank also announced reduction in rates of term deposits of value Rs 2 crore by upto 50 basis points across various tenures effective April 3, 2020.

RBL Bank tumbled 15.53%. The bank said that it has lost about 8% of its deposits in the March quarter and its cost of deposits also declined on a sequential basis in the same period. RBL Bank said it has strong operating profit trajectory for Q4 with Net Interest Margin (NIM) at an all-time high and comfortable liquidity position. The bank said its liquidity ratio stood at approximately 127% for March 2020 and its cost of deposits and cost of funds are lower on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis. The private lender witnessed some run-offs of deposits in this quarter (under 8%), since the last quarter. The deposit reduction was essentially in bulk deposits from government entities/corporations, while the banks retail deposits remained stable.

The Nifty Pharma index jumped 4.77% to 7,361.60. The index fell 2.09% in the previous session.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (up 9.42%), Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (up 4.63%), Wockhardt (up 4.10%), Cadila Healthcare (up 3.62%), Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (up 1.76%), Divi's Laboratories (up 1.17%), GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals (up 1.09%) and Abbott India (up 1.03%), advanced.

Lupin climbed 13.05%. The drug major on 3 April 2020 announced the receipt of the Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for its Aurangabad facility. The inspection for the facility was carried out by the USFDA between 10 and 14 February 2020 and concluded with no observations.

Cipla surged 8.60%. The drug maker announced the successful completion of Phase-3 clinical end-point study for fluticasone propionate and salmeterol inhalation powder (100/50 mcg).

Stocks in Spotlight:

Hero MotoCorp lost 3.39%. The two-wheeler maker said its total two-wheeler sales stood at 334,647 units in March 2020, down 42.43% from 581,279 units in March 2019.

Bajaj Auto slipped 1.55%. The company reported 38% slide in total sales (commercial vehicles+two-wheelers) to 2.42 lakh units in March 2020 as against 3.93 lakh units in March 2019. Bajaj Auto registered a 35% fall in the two-wheeler sales to 2.10 lakh units in March 2020 over 3.23 lakh units in March 2019. Sale of commercial vehicles slumped 55% to 31,599 units in March 2020 as compared to 69,813 units in March 2019.

Tata Motors fell 3.90% after the company announced that its sales in the domestic & international market in March 2020, stood at 12,924 units, down 82.69% compared with 74,679 units during March 2019. Total commercial vehicle sales slumped 87% to 7,123 units, while total passenger vehicle sales slipped 68% to 5,676 units in March 2020 over March 2019.

Meanwhile, Tata Motors informed that S&P Global Ratings has downgraded company's Long Term Issuer Credit Rating from B+/Negative to B/Stable. The credit rating agency has also downgraded Jaguar Land Rover Automotive's Long Term Issuer Credit Rating from B+/Negative to B/Negative. The rating agency said downgrade of company's credit rating is on the back of weaker than expected Credit Matrix owing to the disruptions and economic impact from the COVID-19 outbreak.

Eicher Motors fell 2.57%. The company on Wednesday, 1 April 2020, said its total two-wheeler (Royal Enfield) sales declined 41% to 35,814 units in March 2020 as against 60,831 units in March 2019. On a month-on-month basis, total Royal Enfield sales declined 43.63% in March 2020 from 63,536 units in February 2020. Total two-wheeler exports jumped 33% to 3,184 units in March 2020 compared with 2,397 units in March 2019.

TVS Motor Company crashed 9.34% after the company on Thursday (2 April 2020) said its total sales fell 55.50% to 144,739 units in March 2020 as against 325,323 units in March 2019. The total sales are down by 42.85% in March 2020 compared with 253,261 units in February 2020. Total two-wheelers sales fell 56.90% to 133,988 units in March 2020 as against 310,885 units in March 2019. Domestic two-wheeler sales slumped 62% to 94,103 units in March 2020 as against sales of 247,694 units in March 2019. Three-wheeler sales declined 25.54% to 10,751 units in March 2020 from 14,438 units registered in March 2019. Total exports fell by 34.30% to 50,197 units in March 2020 from 76,405 units in March 2019. Two-wheeler exports contracted by 36.88% to 39,885 units in March 2020 as against 63,191 units in March 2019.

Jindal Steel & Power (JSPL) tumbled 10.16%. JSPL on Friday (3 April 2020) said it registered a 10% jump in consolidated sales to 7.92 metric tonnes (MT) in FY 2019-20 over 7.22 metric tonnes (MT) in FY 2018-19. Consolidated production grew 12% to 8.17 metric tonnes (MT) in FY 2019-20 over 7.30 metric tonnes (MT) in FY 2018-19. Domestic sales grew 12% to 6.04 metric tonnes (MT) in FY 2019-20 from 5.41 metric tonnes (MT) in FY 2018-19. Domestic steel production jumped 13% to 6.30 metric tonnes (MT) in FY 2019-20 as against 5.59 metric tonnes (MT) in FY 2018-19.

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone shed 0.14%. The company said it recorded 7% cargo volume growth to 223 MMT in FY20 over FY19. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone for the twelve-month period ended 31 March 2020 achieved a throughput of 223 MMT across its nine operating ports in India thus registering seven percent cargo volume growth on year on year basis, the company said in a statement on Thursday, 2 April 2020.

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